October 18, 2015 at 12:35PM

10am, Karaikal - moderate rain. #weather

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October 18, 2015 at 07:59AM

7:40am, T showers seen over S-tip, SE coast Tamilnadu, S Kerala. Nagercoil 66mm so far. #weather

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El-Nino: North East Monsoon: Quantum..Relationship and Quantum Analysis full details in Vagaries.

October 17, 2015 at 11:42AM

10:31am, Thunderstorms southeast of Karaikal. #weather

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"Koppu" delaying NE monsoon

Today, weak easterlies seen upto S-E, E-central Bay.. and a easterly trough seen from central Bay to central Bengal .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJg3h.jpg
5pm, due to easterly trough, moderate rain seen over S Odisha, S Chatisgarh and N-E Andhra ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJgDi.jpg

Today, a weak circulation also seen over S-E Bay and another over S Arabian sea, which is moving West.
Present low-;level circulation over S-E Bay is expected to drift West for next 42hrs.. but ... when TS "Koppu" 9 (W-Pacific) makes landfall over N Philippines on 17-Oct.. winds from S,S-E Bay are diverted to that system.
This is the JTWC track forecast for TS - Koppu ... Landfall expected on 17-Oct !.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJhQC.jpg

This chart shows how the winds from S,S-E Bay are expected to move towards "Koppu" from 17/18-Oct.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJi9Q.jpg

On 18-Oct, a weak low-level circulation expected over Indian ocean S,SW of Srilanka and drift west... so more rain for S Tamilnadu.
GFS expects that from 18-Oct to 22-Oct, the wind direction in S,S-E Bay will be Westerly not easterly ! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJiJS.jpg
The NE Monsoon for Tamilnadu window is expected to open up after 24-Oct !

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today, due to easterly trough... West,S-W suburb of #Chennai got a mini shower around  3,3:30pm.
An "odd" shower possible tomorrow as well !
Due to easterly trough, scattered moderate rain expected for S,central Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and NE Andhra.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dJjpF.jpg
More scattered T showers ahead for W-ghats,S Kerala, W-ghats,S Tamilnadu on 16-Oct.!

October 15, 2015 at 04:38PM

1:40pm, Dohnavur - heavy T shower from East. 1:50pm, heavy rain now. #weather

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Vagaries' Note: a brief Summary of the North East Monsoon.
www.vagaries.in

October 14, 2015 at 06:52PM

Heavy thunderstorm in east NCR East Delhi also got light to moderate rain. #iwm

October 14, 2015 at 06:50PM

Srinagar - Too chilly now 13.5° C at 5:30pm, expecting coldest night of the season. #iwm

October 14, 2015 at 06:33PM

2pm, Rains seen from Thamiraparani Bridge. Tirunelveli. #weather

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