WEAK PRESENCE OF SWM

The SWM winds have penetrated upto 100 Deg East IN LOWER LATITUDES.  That to the vertical depth of westerly is APPROXIMATELY up to one km amsl.  This weak westerlies make cycir-upper air circulation-[just like monsoon depression] and as a result (of Yesterday's cycir) it was cloudy over North Chennai [of course with light rain] and south CAP un to Machilipattinam.  This will further move northerly and give lesser rain.

Even the 200 hPa wind is weak NEly.  The 100 hPa wind at Chennai [i.e 13 Deg N] is also Easterly with strength 36knots. The SWM penetration aloft [~1.5km amsl] is producing weather in Bay and SE Indian coast.

Similarly the weak UAC in AS may pull SWly winds to AS.

DUNDEE SAT IMAGERY-020615 03Z

Weather at June 02, 2015 at 09:09AM

An early morning click from Chamundi hills. But Where is it? http://goo.gl/Mqb0ys .. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at June 01, 2015 at 04:59PM

4:42pm, Bangalore - today again T shower on the cards. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at June 01, 2015 at 04:56PM

4:41pm, Bareilly, UP - its started to drizzle now. #weather

from Instagram

NE monsoon style rain for Chennai on 1-Jun - odd !

8:40am, Its very rare to see Chennai RADAR on 1-Jun showing "Rain approaching city from N-E like NE monsoon" ... http://ow.ly/i/b4ITR
This is due to the S-central Bay mid,upper-level circulation.. which was moving West for past 3 days.
At present the mid,upper-level circulation over Bay is near N,central coast Tamilnadu and S coast Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/b4J2A

Due to this circulation a HEAVY T shower line is seen pushing towards N Tamilnadu coast for past 4 hrs... http://ow.ly/i/b4J8w
9:30am, #Chennai - slowly getting ready for a T shower. And reports of rain from Triplicane zone.

At present a mid,upper-level WD trough is over N,N-W India and drifting East.. this can drift the present Bay circulation to N and then N-E
During next 24hrs, the WD trough is expected to deepen to 20N along N-W India and Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/b4Jvj

GFS suggests a Westerly movement for present Bay circulation .. meaning it'll cross N TN coast and push to Arabian sea on 4-Jun !
If this happens, the Monsoon onset over Kerala will be delayed till 5-Jun, but HEAVY rain ahead for S peninsula ... http://ow.ly/i/b4JDH

During next 24hrs, due to Bay circulation...
HEAVY rain for N,N-W,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu and into S Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/b4JLD 
#Chennai - Today a T shower possible before noon,evening and MORE heavy rain before evening of 2-Jun.

In 24hrs, more T showers for S,S-W,S-central Karnataka, N,central W-ghats of Kerala and Kerala coast.
For next 24hrs, Scattered T showers expected ALL along S-E coast (N-E Andhra, Odisha) of India.

#Chennai - 9:57am, Drizzle started here in Polichalur zone.

June 01, 2015 at 03:20AM

2:30am, Bhubaneswar - Drizzling With massive thunder. #iwm

Weather at June 01, 2015 at 12:03AM

8:17pm, More rain in Bangalore. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at June 01, 2015 at 12:01AM

A calm evening in Bandadka, near Kasargod. #weather

from Instagram

Tele connection and SWM on set

{a} The Power House is strong with 1032 hPa.

{b} Its effect will be felt in TN & SE coast immediately.

{c} This will pave way for the strengthening of SWM monsoon in Bay.

{4}The North Eastern states soon be getting rainfall.

Descriptive 10 days forecast for North coast of TANZANIA.

[This tele connection is giving more insight over the onset of SWM in the west coast of India.]

During dekad 15 of 2015, the southern high pressure systems are expected to intensify significantly, while their counterparts to the north are expected to relax. Thus the ITCZ is expected to continue moving northwards from its current position. This movement will influence weather over unimodal and bimodal areas of the country, especially over Western, South-western highlands, Southern, Southern coast and central regions where seasonal rains has ended, while in the northern coast, north-eastern highland and Lake Victoria basin of the country seasonal rains are expected to recede. Warm SSTs are expected to be observed over Atlantic Ocean closer to Angola coast.

Neutral to slightly warm sea surface temperatures are expected to be observed East Africa coast while warm SSTs are expected over the Somali coast in the West Indian Ocean and in the Central Indian Ocean. Low level wind speed is likely to start rising over some parts of the country (Tanzania) and are expected to be characterized by southerly winds over the eastern sector of the country turning to south-easterly over remaining parts of the country

Courtesy : Tanzania Meteorological Agency.

 

May 31, 2015 at 05:44PM

Srinagar - 5:44pm, Overcast since afternoon but no rain yet, fresh light snowfall on nearby hills. #iwm