Another active phase of SWM

 Watch the cross equatorial flow and its strength. 

This may lead to another active phase of SWM

As reported from a SHIP

(13.60N 59.90E)

Wind speed at 12 UTC 16 Aug 2014 was
34 knots or 18 m/s from 230 degrees or SW

The South Indian Ocean high pressure system is in vantage position. 
 Again a chance for active Rf over west coast below 13 DEgree N and above 09 Deg North.
  
Delta districts in TamilNadu may get heavy rainfall

Today, low,mid-level circulation persist over Bihar and its trough dipping south upto S-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKpD 
A weak mid-level circulation seen over S-central Bay and a weak upper-level circulation over S-S-W Bay... http://ow.ly/i/6zKqz 
A weak upper-level circulation also seen over N Bay along S Bangladesh coast .. expected to drift into S Bengal in 18hrs and vanish !

The mid,upper-level circulation over S-central Bay is expected to become well marked in 24hrs and drift West towards N Tamilnadu coast.
On 18-Aug, mid-level circulation is expected to cross N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai... http://ow.ly/i/6zKxD 
Meanwhile, upper-level circulation is expected to drift into central Tamilnadu coast on 18-Aug ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKAi 
The upper-level circulation is then expected to pop into Arabian sea along N,central Kerala coast on 19/20-Aug.

Moderate / Heavy scattered rainfall ahead for N-W,N,N-E,N-central-coast Tamilnadu, S Karnataka, and S Andhra during next 2 days !
#Chennai - evening, late-evening showers expected on today and Sunday as well !

Heavy scattered rain to continue over Bihar, N,central Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha on today and Sunday ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKIm 
Widespread HEAVY rain for N,central zones of N-E states of India to continue during next 2 days!
Along W,S-W coast of India.. scattered rain expected only along S Maharastra coast and Karnataka coast during next 2 days.
Scattered rain expected over S,S-E,E Rajasthan and over parts of N-W,W,central,S Madhyapradesh in next 36hrs.

Chennai - 5:50am, light/ moderate rain has pushed into parts of N,NW city, suburbs.
Long drizzle ahead for most of the city this morning.

#Chennai - Check out the accumulated rainfall RADAR plot till 8:30am today...

Lots of rain around City ... http://ow.ly/i/6zKm0

Weather Instagram at August 15, 2014 at 06:24AM

#chennai - 5:57am, mild morning. #happy #independence day. #India . #weather

from Instagram

Thiruvarur - 4:35pm, "Heavy T shower with high winds" ... http://ow.ly/i/6yrnd

 #Chennai - 5:45pm, Moderate rain seen over N,N-W from city at around 40km.

Heavy rain over East India, A circulation expected over S-central Bay !

Today as well the circulation persists over East Nepal, N Bihar ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjzv 
The monsoon axis is expected to be along Himalayan foothills upto Northern zones of N-E states during next 2 days !

A low,mid-level trough is expected to drop from N,central Bihar to down south upto S-central Bay from 15/16-Aug ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjHO 
On tomorrow, a mid,upper-level circulation is expected over S-central Bay ... and expected to drift W-N-W ... http://ow.ly/i/6yjKe 
The upcoming low,mid,upper-level circulation from S-central Bay is expected to cross along central,N-coast Tamilnadu and S Andhra on 18-Aug
If this prediction is true, then widespread HEAVY rain ahead for Kerala, Tamilnadu, S Karnataka and S,central Andhra from 15 to 20-Aug.

Meanwhile, an upper-level circulation is expected over E,central Rajasthan on 15-Aug... and expected to drift E-N-E. http://ow.ly/i/6yjSM 

Rainfall alert :
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Next 2 days, Heavy widespread rain to persist along himalayan foothills, Nepal, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Sikkim, N Bengal, North of N-E states 
Widespread rain expected over Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, E,S,central Uttarpradesh during next 36hrs.!
Today, scattered heavy rain for Chatisgarh, Odisha as well !

1:30pm, HEAVY rain over most of E India ... http://ow.ly/i/6ykjd 

Today after 3pm, T showers expected over S Karnataka, #Bangalore , N-W,N,N-E,central,N-central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai.

Weather Instagram at August 14, 2014 at 10:47AM

#chennai - 10:40am, a clear, hot, humid day to start. Rain expected after 4pm. #weather

from Instagram

5:30pm, HEAVY rain over E,S Uttarpradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, most of Bengal, N,N-E Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/6xL2B 

For N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai - Less or No rain expected tonight.
#Chennai - can get a long drizzle towards early hrs of Thursday.
Showers are expected to be back for S Karnataka, S Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai on tomorrow evening !

GFS continues to predict a mid,upper-level circulation over central,S-central Bay on 15/16-Aug ... http://ow.ly/i/6xKGZ  "and drift West"

#Chennai - 4:33pm, Warm again after a overnight rain, Cloud cover day.
Nungambakkam 5.9mm,
Airport 5.7mm,
IWM Polichalur 9.9mm.

Today, low-level circulation seen over Bihar, E Uttarpradesh, N Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/6xIDi 
Today, the remnant upper-level circulation is seen over N Chatisgarh ... http://ow.ly/i/6xIKH 

Mid-level vertical velocity chart suggest Heavy, scattered rain to persist over E,central Uttarpradesh, Himalayan foothills, Bihar, N Bengal 
NAVGEM model predicts more scattered rain for S,E,central Uttarpradesh, N,central Bihar, Himalayan foothills, N Bengal till 15-Aug.

On 14,15-Aug, the W-coast offshore trough is expected to be active from N Maharastra coast to central Kerala coast http://ow.ly/i/6xJru 

Rainfall alert for next 42hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

During next 42hrs...
Scattered rain to continue along Karnataka coast, S,central Maharastra coast, N,N,central W-ghats of Kerala.
For next 48hrs, More scattered rain for Odisha, Chatisgarh, N-E Andhra and Jharkhand ... http://ow.ly/i/6xJNV 
Before 15-Aug, Widespread rain for E,central Uttarpradesh, Bihar, Bengal, Some HEAVY along himalayan foothills .. http://ow.ly/i/6xJYD 
Scattered heavy rain to continue over Himachal, Uttarakhand during next 2 days.
Sikkim and North,N-central zones of N-E states are expected to get widespread rain and some will be Very HEAVY during next 42hrs.