6:30pm, Moderate showers over central,E Rajasthan, central,S Madhyapradesh, central Maharastra, N,N-W,S-E Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/5AExC 
6:30pm, T showers over N-E Andhra, S Karnataka, central Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5AExC

#HOT at 5pm,
Hyderabad, Lucknow, Jamshedpur = 40 C
Ahmedabad, patna, Varanasi = 39 C
Kolkata, Bengaluru = 37 C

5:10pm, Nagpur airport is reporting "rain with thunderstorm" and temperature around 37 C

#Chennai - 5:10pm, Temperature is 35 C (feels like 37 C).. sea breeze from E-S-E.
Airport touched 40.2 C on 15-May.

Super #HOT 40s of 15-May...
Bankura = 41.9 C
Bhubaneswar = 43.7 C
Rentachintala = 45 C
Ongole = 44 C
Nellore = 43.9 C
Vellore = 41 C

Today's weather photo from North Tamilnadu

Weather Instagrams on 13,14,15-May from Nagercoil, Tirunelveli and Thiruchirapalli

#Thiruchirapalli - 2:30pm, yes feels like 43 C. A still day instagram.com/p/oAwjlfOqps/


Tirunelveli - 12:30pm, a #hot and hazy #day so far. Doordarsan station in #photo #weather instagram.com/p/n9-FJ5Oqga/


Near #Nagercoil - 3:30pm, warm and humid with almost no chance of rain #today instagram.com/p/n7vMjFuqkp/

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Monsoon may break in over Andamans by Saturday, says Met | Business Line http://t.co/dPbY6ZDIQe 

Cross equatorial winds (or) S-W Monsoon winds are over S Bay... Monsoon expected over S,central Andaman on 17-May http://ow.ly/i/5Au3f 
Monsoon over S,S-E Bay will strengthen and expected to cover most of Andaman(s), S-central Bay by 21-May .. http://ow.ly/i/5Au70 

After 20-May, Srilanka and S tip Tamilnadu can experience Monsoon kind of weather with early morning showers, high humidity, reduced temp.

Monsoon onset parameters and " chance of delayed Monsoon onset over Kerala expected " ... http://ow.ly/wUCkK 

SWM 2014 Rainfall-முதல் பருவ மழை

 These two imagery are from METOSAT 7 satellite.
It is indicative of active cross equatorial flow around equator [Northern Hemisphere] and along 70 Deg to 80 Deg longitude. This gives thrust to BAY winds and SWM may set in Andaman Islands today or tomorrow [15 or 16 May 2014]
Mascarene High is just SE-ESE of Kanyakumari and located just close to 85 DEG East longitude and 30 DEG South Latitude [Say,about 3300 km]

தென் மேற்கு பருவக்காற்றிற்கு ஆதாரமாய் இருப்பது இந்திய பெருங்கடலில் உள்ள 'மேச்கரின் ஹை" எனப்படும் உயர் காற்றழுத்த மண்டலமே ஆகும். இவ்வாண்டு இந்த காற்றழுத்த மண்டலம் [இன்றைய நிலையில்] குமரி முனைக்கு கிழக்கு தென்கிழக்கு பகுதியில் சுமார் 3300 கிலோ மீட்டர் தொலைவில் அமைந்து உள்ளது. இதனால், பூமத்திய ரேகையை தாண்டி,வங்க கடல் பகுதியில் நுழையும் தென் மேற்கு பருவக்காற்று அந்தமான் பகுதியில் முதல் பருவ மழையை இன்றோ அன்றி நாளையோ தரவிருக்கிறது.

7pm, Chennai - heavy T shower seen over S-W from city at around 80km

Monsoon Watch -4 ....14th May 2014

Synoptic Situation: 
(1) Season's first well marked low pressure area formed over Comorin area and neighbourhood on 6th  

(2) Northwestern India and North-Central Pakistan  received precipitation due to consistent passage of systems in westerlies. 

(3) Pre-monsoon convective activity increased over central and peninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity. 

(4) Heat wave conditions prevailed in some parts of west Rajastan during initial part of the week. But, subsided later. 

(5) MJO gained amplitude over the Atlantic & African regions and propagated eastwards approaching Indian Ocean. This is seen to be manifested in the form of a low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal. Also, the lower tropospheric wind anomalies  indicate stronger than normal easterlies over south Peninsular region which caused moisture incursion leads to increase in rainfall activity over peninsular and northeast India. 

1. Seasonal Low: Indicator: -ve
The NW plains heating picked up initially, and laxes again, as WDs starting streaming in.

 
Heat should  to pick up in the Rajasthan/Sindh regions soon,  so good chance for the seasonal low to form and establish itself, at least by the 20th. Today the pressure at MSL is 1004 mb, with the core at 1002 mb.
The Sub Continent hot spots have just about touched the 45/46c mark (it is already Late. Refer MW-1) and should head for the 50c mark by around 20th May.

2. ITCZ: Indicator: +ve
As it is by the 10th, that we should have the ITCZ nearing the Equator. Only then would the Bay branch of the SWM could commence in the Southern Bay by the 15th of May. But, it has crossed Equator and is around the 5N latitude.

3. Jet Streams: Indicator:-ve
These are streaming away in a Westerly direction above the 25N line. But the trough looping down is not a very healthy trend.They are just about getting Easterly around 10N. Needs a rapid change now.

4. Cross Equatorial Winds: -ve in Arabian Branch...+ve in Bay Branch
Somewhat getting  established in the Bay region. SW winds, with sufficient speed hitting the S.Myanmar coasts, covering the Bay Islands with 20-30 knts, and could herald the arrival of the SWM in a week's time there.
Arabian Sea winds are dis organised, and in fact winds are heading South in the Central Sea. Sufficient speed in getting the "Somali Current" established is still lacking. The SST off the Somali Coast is 22/24c, While the required SST in First week June is 17/18c. (Required to form masses of Monsoon clouds in the warm central Arabian Sea).

5. ENSO: The sea surface temperature anomaly across the NINO3.4 region (located in the central Pacific) has recently risen to +0.5 °C, warming by 0.1 °C from last week. El- Nino is firming up slowly. 
Since March, Nino 3.4 has warmed up by 0.3c (See Diagram). 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) currently remains neutral. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 4 May 2014 is +5.2.

As indicated in earlier MWs, it is gradual in developing. We would expect full El-Nino conditions by August.

Complete on vagaries

#Chennai - 2pm, #HOT at 37 C (but feels like 46 C) ... now Sea breeze has set in, temp will go down.

#Nagercoil - 10:40am, warm and hazy. T shower possible after 1pm. http://instagram.com/p/n7MGmmuquF/

1:30pm, T showers popping over N-W Tamilnadu, central W-ghats of Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/5y7sT 

RT @GanpatTeli1: Heavy rain in delhi @weatherofindia (5:18am)

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Heavy downpour in Delhi just got over. (5:35am)

9am, Heavy rain seen over S,central Kashmir, Himachal, Haryana into Uttarakhand and W Uttarpradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/5y1ga
9am, S,S-central,S-E Bay along Andamans continue to be very active ... #Monsoon is near ... http://ow.ly/i/5y1ga