Monsoon Watch - 3.. 2014 ....Part 1....27th April 2014

1. ENSO:
Subsequent to writing the MW-2, we are keeping a carefull watch on the El-Nino developments. the Sub Surface Sea temeperatures in the Nino 3.4 and other regions have been constantly warming up since end February. The next logical sequence is the warm waters rising to surface, heat up the Sea surface temperatures, and then effect the trade winds. But, against much over reaction on the El Nino, we see the warming taMonsoon Watch -3 ..Published in Vagaries...
http://www.vagaries.in/2014/04/monsoon-watch-3.htmlking its own time. Does not seem to be happening at a faster rate or in a hurried manner. The last 2 weeks heating ( Nino 3.4) shows a very nominal warming up, of 0.23c. The analytical point to be noted here: The anomally in February was below normal, while now with a rise, the anomally is near average.  and Nino 1+2 has actually declined by 0.7c ! 
The most recent ONI value is -0.7c...(El Nino is characterised by ONI values of 0.5 or above, La Nina is characterised by -0.5 or below).
So the ENSO conditions are still Neutral. 
May happen that an eventual El Nino, though unavoidable, may actually form full fledged ( around August) after the main months of our South West Monsoon have been done with. South West Monsoon may get sluggish ( In Peninsula) after July, around August and september.

More in Monsoon Watch -3 ..Published in Vagaries...
http://www.vagaries.in/2014/04/monsoon-watch-3.html

Again Int N.Kokan got sizzled in heat wave today !!

7 times 40c plus temp recorded in current summer season! In which 6 times in April itself for Thane to Badlapur belt !

Some max temp from the region below dated (26-4-2014):

Badlapur temp 40.4°C with min humidity of 14%.
Thane IMD temp 41.2°C with min humidity of 18%.
Karjat estimated temp 43.0°C with min humidity of 12%.
Bhira temp 44.0c

Palghar max temp 38.6°C with min humidity of 26% today.
Mumbai temp 35.5°C with min humidity of 34% today.

Time lapse cumulonimbus clouds in Kolkata

Finally after 4 days period, today's temps are below 40c mark (except Karjat & Bhira) in North Kokan !

But still it is hot & above normal temp!

Some max temp from the region below dated (25-4-2014):

Thane temp 38.2°C with min humidity of 14%.
Badlapur temp 39.4°C with min humidity of 19%.
Karjat estimated temp 41.5°C with min humidity of 13%.
Bhira temp 43.5°C

Palghar temp 35.3°C with min humidity of 34%.
Mumbai temp 33.8°C with min humidity of 47%.

Chennai, max temp of 37 C expected till 30-Apr.

#Chennai - 3:40pm, Temperature at 35 C with stiff Sea breeze from E-S-E and humidity at 49% ... http://ow.ly/i/5mbLa 
#Chennai - Till 30-Apr, The day temperature is expected to be around 36 / 37 C.
Days will have less wind till 2pm and Sea breeze will set in

Widespread T showers for N,central zones of N-E states from 26-Apr.

T shower activity is expected to become HEAVY and Widespread over most of N,central N-E states from 26-Apr ... http://ow.ly/i/5mbhL 
The low-level circulation over N Bengal, N-E,E Bihar and N Bangladesh zone will increase the T showers over N-E states from Saturday !

Today's analysis show a very-low, low-level wind discontinuity can be seen from S-W Bengal to E Maharastra to S-W Maharastra, N Karnataka..
.. and the low-level trough drops south from N,N-W Karnataka to S Kerala and S Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5maoq 

During next 2 days, low-level circulation is expected to persist over N,central Bengal, Bihar... and it's trough is expected upto S Kerala
During next 2 days, the low-level circulation is expected to persist over N-central zone of N-E states !
A weak low-level circulation over Gulf Mannar and S Tip Tamilnadu persists and expected even till Monday !! http://ow.ly/i/5mb9y 

Today again, more T showers expected over S, W-ghats Kerala and over S Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/5maYs 
Today, late evening and midnight... T showers expected for S,S-W,central,N Karnataka into S Maharastra and N,N-W,N-central Andhra.
Today, T Showers also for N-E Andhra and into Odisha as well.
Today - Midnight or early hr showers expected for S, S-S-E coast Tamilnadu.

Slowly N,N-W India is also heating up ...
Bikaner = 40C
Guwahati = 40.6C
Barmer = 42.6 C
Allahabad = 41C
Bhuj = 41.2 C
Bankura = 42.8 C

#HOT 40s of 24-Apr...
Jamshedpur = 41.4C
Kolkata = 41.2C
Bhubaneswar = 42.8 C
Akola = 42.1 C
Hanamkonda = 42.4 C
Rentachintala = 43.4 C

Tamilnadu, #HOT topper ...
#Chennai (AP) = 36.4 C
Dharmapuri = 39.6 C
Karur = 39.8 C
Madurai= 38.6 C
Thiruchirapalli = 40.8 C
Vellore= 38.8C

#HOT at 12:30pm...
Nagpur = 43 C
Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Lucknow = 39 C
Delhi, Thiruchirapalli = 38 C

At 12:30pm...
#Chennai = 37 C  (feels like 42.1 C)
#Bengaluru = 37 C  (feels like 38 C)

 Tuticorin - 12:25pm, HOT and Humid ... ow.ly/i/5m5z6

RT @uzair432: @weatherofindia Showers in parts of hyderabad. Temparature plunges down to 25c. http://t.co/vsfzqiGFGF 12:19am