"91B" is now "04B" - Almost a Cyclone now !

Latest as of 5:30pm analysis, Pressure around 996mb, tracking West now.
JTWC issues a Cyclone ALERT for this system.

6:30pm, Satellite IR

#Chennai - Tonight can expect a COLD night with temperature reaching upto 22 or 21 C towards early morning.
Another DRY day (20-Nov) ahead!

5pm, HEAVY rain seen over S Kerala.

RT @jamewils: @weatherofindia yep..its heavy raining here! (S Kerala) (5:40pm) http://t.co/6hZ5ewnSP2 

Deep Depression "91B" - Moved W-N-W and S, Central Andhra coast landfall expected

Analysis at 2pm indicates that "91B" is a Deep Depression with pressure around 997mb.
Latest position is 14.8 N , 85.2 E, and winds gusting upto 65 kmph.
After a small movement towards W-S-W... now it has moved W-N-W during past 6 hrs.

Visible satellite at 4:30pm, shows good convective activity over N,N-W,S-E,E,N-E quadrants.
Cloud top temperatures over its N,E,N-E quadrants show upto -40 and -50 C.

NAVGEM model indicates a landfall as Depression/ Deep depression along #Chennai and Nellore on night / evening of Thursday, 21-Nov-2013.

GFS model suggest a landfall as Depression along Nellore, Ongole and Machilipatnam coast.

Till evening of Wednesday, 20-Nov, LESS rain expected along Andhra coast, interior, Coastal Tamilnadu.
But showers expected to continue for S Kerala and S Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

Early rain around morning of Thursday expected for N-E,central Andhra coast.
For central,S Andhra coast, HEAVY rain due to this Depression is expected only around evening / night of Thursday, 21-Nov.
If the system crosses thru Ongole, the Vijayawada zone to get Very HEAVY rains on Friday.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.45am, Clear sky and bright sunshine .. a pic http://t.co/IsYp93YQUy 

#Chennai - 3:45pm, having a Clear and warm day with some low cloud formations. Temperature is 30.8 °C and wind from N-N-E

COLD N-India, It's Adampur(Punjab) again recording the lowest night temperature of 5.6°C

"91B" nearing Deep Depression

Latest analysis at 8am show that the pressure at core is around 997mb.
Now it is a Deep Depression, Weather models did not expect the system to intensify to this strength.
During past 12hrs it has drifted W-S-W.

Present position 14.5 N , 85.8 E
Winds gusting upto 65 kmph.
Visible satellite shot at 11am show a very good circulation with "almost an EYE" and good convective activity over its S,S-W, N, N-E quadrants.

More on the predicted path, landfall coming up in 1.5hrs

Latest on Bay circulation "91B"

5:30pm, Wind analysis show that the circulation over E-central Bay is getting organized, currently positioned at 14.1 N , 88.3 E.
Pressure around 1007mb.
The nature of the circulation is elongated from North to South.

8pm, Satellite IR shows good convective activity over N,N-E,E quadrants and the system is seen getting a good circular feature.

NAVGEM model indicates a Westerly track and then W-S-W towards N Tamilnadu coast during next 36hrs.

But GFS model suggests a N-W or W-N-W track and then a small S-W drift towards S Andhra coast.
Both the models expect the system to make landfall as LOW on evening or midnight of Wednesday, 20-Nov.

Till Wednesday evening less showers for S Andhra coast, N,central Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.
Showers expected to continue over W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu, S,S-central Tamilnadu till evening of Wednesday, 20-Nov.

#Bangalore - 5:40pm, "Heavy rain over Bannerghatta road, Domlur zones" ... https://www.facebook.com/groups/blrwwatch/

6pm, HEAVY rain over central, S, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala and into S Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/3L1E4

More cold nights ahead for N,central,N-W,E,S-central India

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 2.30pm, Dark passing clouds in the morning, however Sky cleared ..a pic clicked at 9.00am http://t.co/ONjeekIXhk 

3pm, Scattered moderate rain seen over central, central-coast, S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3KW6g 

Adampur (Punjab) and Najibabad (Uttar Pradesh) records a low temp of 6.5 C today morning.

A weak upper level W.D trough is expected to touch N,N-W Kashmir on Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/3KWjG

November COLD conditions over N,N-W,Central,East India is expected to persist during next 3 nights,mornings ... http://ow.ly/i/3L0Fk 
Even more, the COLD conditions are expected to penetrate into S Maharastra, N,N-central Karantaka, N Andhra, Odisha and Chatisgarh in 2days 

During the past 7 days, Night temps are below normal over MOST zones in India, especially over N-central,East-central http://ow.ly/i/3L15I 

Fresh LOW over E-central Bay - "91B"

RT @joesat: @weatherofindia #Chennai #palavakkam Monday morning blues as it rains consistent and gloomy 8:00 am. 
#Chennai - Polichalur zone got good heavy drizzle from 8:45am to 10am.
#Chennai - 1pm, showers seen near East of Kanchipuram town. Cloudy with mild temperature now.

----------------------------
Today, another circulation has popped over E-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3KSHK 
A good easterlies is behind this system.

1pm, Satellite IR show good circulation and convective activity around the system, and being tracked as "91B" ... http://ow.ly/i/3KSZb 
12:30pm, Latest satellite IR also show heavy showers along central Tamilnadu coast and S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3KT3O 

The fresh LOW over E-central Bay "91B" .. expected to move W-N-W initially without much intensification during next 36hrs.
Due to good easterlies, "91B" may swiftly reach S,central Andhra coast as a Marked LOW on 20-Nov, Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/3KTcD 

Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai expected to have LESS rain on Tuesday, till Wednesday noon.
Due to 91B, Heavy/moderate rain expected to start along S,Central Andhra coast and even over N coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai on evening, 20-Nov

In the meantime another LOW is expected to push into S-E Bay on 21-Nov... this can become Cyclone "Helen" and reach N Tamilnadu coast.