Severe Cyclone "Phailin" Cat 3: (10.30 pm IST)
"Phailin", getting stronger by the hour, has reached a stage of Rapid Intensification. The Intensity which was 4.0 at 0000Z has rsen to 6.0 by 1200Z.
And that is tremendous !
With an well formed eye, 15 kms in diameter, it is but obvious that the central uprising warm air is turbulent, and at the "warm eye" the cloud temperatures in the centre of the system has risen to 0c, while the outer cloud top temperatures are imaged at -80c.
Wind speeds and core pressure indicate a Cat 3 status...Winds around the eye are estimated at 185 kmph (though DVORAK calculates at 212 kmph). Core pressure is sliding down at astounding speed, is currently estimated at 949 mb.
Now, with core winds of 185 kmph, if the upward warm current mentioned is strong, an outer eye , a circle of severe thunder storms, can form, and "choke " the original eye. In this phase, the cyclone weakens. But, generally, an outer ring can form if the original eye is less than 10 kms in diameter.
Can only re -strengthen if the inner wall is completely wiped out by the stronger outer eye.
But all this can be superbly observed by a reconnaissance aircraft.
Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted.
"Phailin", getting stronger by the hour, has reached a stage of Rapid Intensification. The Intensity which was 4.0 at 0000Z has rsen to 6.0 by 1200Z.
And that is tremendous !
With an well formed eye, 15 kms in diameter, it is but obvious that the central uprising warm air is turbulent, and at the "warm eye" the cloud temperatures in the centre of the system has risen to 0c, while the outer cloud top temperatures are imaged at -80c.
Wind speeds and core pressure indicate a Cat 3 status...Winds around the eye are estimated at 185 kmph (though DVORAK calculates at 212 kmph). Core pressure is sliding down at astounding speed, is currently estimated at 949 mb.
Now, with core winds of 185 kmph, if the upward warm current mentioned is strong, an outer eye , a circle of severe thunder storms, can form, and "choke " the original eye. In this phase, the cyclone weakens. But, generally, an outer ring can form if the original eye is less than 10 kms in diameter.
Can only re -strengthen if the inner wall is completely wiped out by the stronger outer eye.
But all this can be superbly observed by a reconnaissance aircraft.
Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted.
