Synoptic Situation and Outlook for next 4 Days...8th May - 11th May

Low BB-1, now formed as a weak Low, is off the SE coast of Sri Lanka, and is situated at 6N and 87E as on Tuesday evening.
Now, this is expected to deepen, to 999 mb, and reach depression strength by the 10th/11th. However, BB-1 will not travel much in the next 3 days, and develop further almost in a stationary position till 10th.
After the 11th, it is likely to track North initially and then curve slightly towrads the N/NE.
SWM moves into the South Andaman Seas, after 12th, as soon as BB-1 starts tracking...

Other weather on vagaries

"91B" and "92B" - Two circulations !!

According to NRL,

"91 B" is now located over 7.4 N , 74.3 E.

"92 B" is Fresh and located over 5.5 N , 87.9 E

Latest analysis show that the circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf mannar, S-E corner Arabian sea).

8pm, Satellite IR shows TWO circulations and its cloud activities...

Latest COLA model suggests a Depression over S. Bay on 10-May, and expects the system to move N-W after that.

IMD GFS model suggests almost the same, but after that it expects the system to move North into Bay.

All together a different track is projected by NOGAPS model. A depression is expected to form just S-E of Srilanka on 10-May and drift into Srilanka and then into Gulf Mannar in subsequent days. This is highly unlikely.

7pm, Going by the latest Satellite shot, still the Bay circulation is elongated in nature from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar)

Today, a weak low level circulation is seen along E.Uttarpradesh and Bihar, it's trough can be seen upto S-W Karnataka http://ow.ly/i/234LP 

And a weak circulation over North N-E states still persists !

The North South trough from Bihar, E.Uttarpradesh is expected to persist for another 2 days ...  http://ow.ly/i/235cW 

In next 2 days, T.showers to continue for most of Kerala, S,W.Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/235W6 

Some T.showers also expected over S,N,N-E Karnataka and into N,N-W Andhra till Wednesday... http://ow.ly/i/235W6

Heavy T.showers to continue for N, central, S-E Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/2369S 

Scattered Heavy T.showers to continue over most of N-E states and Sikkim ... http://ow.ly/i/236fi 

7:50pm, Kolkata airport is reporting "Rain with Thunderstorm" 

7pm, Massive T.showers seen over S,central Kerala, W.Tamilnadu, S-W Karnataka, E.Maharastra, N-W Andhra, N-E Odisha http://ow.ly/i/2346a 

7pm, Massive T.showers also seen over S,S-W,central Bengal as well ... http://ow.ly/i/2346a

Monsoon Watch - 4 2013 Quantum Analysis, Part -1.....Full Note on Vagaries...

#Chennai - Yesterday max = 37.7 C. Today from 11am its cloudy with a thin high cloud cover, temp at 3:40pm = 33 C with Sea breeze from E-S-E

Yesterday, #HOT S.Peninsula ... Nizamabad, Kadappa and Gulbarga recorded the highest maximum temperature of 43 C

RT @aknarendranath: Cyclonic churn over Bay put under close watch - Business Line http://t.co/NqeIhps49M @weatherofindia 

RT @bumblme: Monday 3:00 PM: and it is 42°C / 108°F in #Hyderabad @weatherofindia 

3pm, reports of Heavy T.shower over S.tip Tamilnadu ... #Nagercoil

2:30pm, Heavy T.shower seen over S.tip Tamilnadu and over Gulf Mannar ... http://ow.ly/i/22Y92 

3:30pm, T.showers seen over S.Jharkand, N-E Chatisgarh and into S-W Bengal .. T.cells popping over Odisha, N-E Andhra http://ow.ly/i/22Yb1 

#HOT at 3:30pm, Nagpur airport = 47 C, Hyderabad = 43 C, Ahmedabad = 42 C, Delhi = 40 C, Lucknow = 37 C, Kolkata = 34 C, Bangalore = 33 C.

"91B" - Disorganized now ! Will it become a Cyclone over Bay ?

Today morning analysis show that yesterday's circulation over S,S-W Bay is still elongated from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar).

In next 24 or 36 hrs, the circulation is expected to consolidate along S,S-W Bay near S-E Srilanka (based on COLA and IMD models).

At 5:30pm, the system is tracked at location 4.6 N , 77.7 E.

Both COLA and IMD GFS models suggests that the circulation will get organized over S,S-W Bay on 7-May and predicts that it'll develop into a Cyclone on 10-May, pretty much over the same location.

Latest NOGAPS model also predicts similar to COLA model... After 10 / 11-May, the Cyclone is expected to move N-N-W into Bay.

NOGAPS predicts the Cyclone to make landfall over N.Tamilnadu and S.Andhra on 12-May

Present W.D affecting Kashmir is expected to move away in next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/22H0h 

Present rain over Kashmir will vanish or reduce in 24hrs.. but some odd rain to continue till Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/22H2C 

Today as well the trough extending south from S.Bihar, N.Chatisgarh upto S.Karnataka seen ... http://ow.ly/i/22GA9 

The North-South trough from Bihar to S.Karnataka is expected to persist till 7-May !

T.showers along Kerala, S.Tamilnadu to continue till Tuesday and expected to reduce or Vanish if the Bay Cyclone materializes ..!

Isolated T.showers may pop over N.Karnataka, W,N-W,N-E Andhra during next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/22GKE 

Weak circulation over North N-E states persists and expected to last another 2 days .

Some isolated T.showers will pop over Odisha and over Jharkand as well during next 2 days.!

Scattered T.showers is expected to push into N,E,central,S-E Bengal during next 3 days ... http://ow.ly/i/22GTa 

No reduction in rain for N-E states seen during next 4 days ... Heavy and scattered T.showers expected... http://ow.ly/i/22GWu