T.Showers to persist for W-Ghats of Kerala during next 3 days ... http://ow.ly/i/21p1L 

Some T.showers are also expected over W,N-W,central Tamilnadu and into S,S-W Karnataka as well during next 3 days.. http://ow.ly/i/21p5t 

Isolated T.showers also possible for N-E Andhra and into S.Odisha till 5-May ... http://ow.ly/i/21pak 

After 4-May, the upcoming circulation over Bay may disrupt the present #HOT weather over South peninsula .!

For #Chennai, due to upcoming circulation over Bay, HEAVY rain expected on 7,8,9,10-May according to latest COLA model ... may become TRUE !

Heavy scattered rain to continue over N,central N-E states ... http://ow.ly/i/21pQm 

From 4-May, some showers may push into N,central Bengal ... http://ow.ly/i/21pW5 

Today, a trough is seen extending S-W from Bihar, N.Chatisgarh upto S-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/21jvH 

Tomorrow, This trough may become even more North-South from Bihar to S.Tamilnadu ... and persist till 5-May .. http://ow.ly/i/21jy2 

S,S-W Bay is expected to pop a low level circulation on 5-May... 

COLA model suggests : The upcoming circulation over S.Bay may deepen and cross into S-E,central Tamilnadu coast ... 

But the IMD model suggests that it may attain Cyclonic strength over S.Bay itself on 8-May ... 

5pm, T.showers seen over N.Karnataka, central W-Ghats of Kerala, S.Kerala and over S.Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/21jmC 

"Reason behind more Arabian sea Cyclones" - El Nino Modoki

It is a well known climatological fact that during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in the North Indian Ocean, more cyclones form in the Bay of Bengal compared with the Arabian Sea. Scientists have now discovered why in some years more cyclones form in the Arabian Sea than usual. This is due to a newly discovered Phenomenon (2007) El Nino Modoki — which causes warm moist conditions in the Central Pacific and dry cold conditions in Eastern and western pacific. A more familiar phenomenon, El Nino, was found to suppress cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea.

The findings are results of a study undertaken by a team led by Dr. M.R. Ramesh Kumar, Senior Scientist, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa. The study has been published in the Natural Hazards journal.

The reason why El Nino Modoki brings only fewer number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is because one of the two descending limbs of the Walker Cell is over the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal. The descending limb causes dry conditions not conducive for cyclone formation. The ascending limb of the Walker Cell, on the other hand, brings rain. Also, an El Nino Modoki creates stronger divergence over the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal compared to El Nino. Divergence (opposite of convergence) means surface winds move away from each other and result in low relative vorticity (rotational flow of winds). These conditions are not conducive for cyclones. This explains why Bay of Bengal region (close to western Pacific) has fewer cyclones during an El Nino Modoki.

On the other hand, there is large convergence over the Arabian Sea during an El Nino Modoki explaining the large number of cyclones in that region. A statistical analysis of the El Nino and El Nino Modoki years between 1979-2004 was conducted. It was found that there were four El Nino years and seven El Nino Modoki years during this period.

The number of cyclones per year show significant differences indicating that El Nino Modoki years are conducive for cyclone formation over Arabian Sea while El Nino is conducive for cyclones over the Bay of Bengal.

Only post-monsoon and pre-monsoon periods were chosen for the study. “Cyclones usually do not form during monsoon season,” Dr. Ramesh Kumar says in an email to this Correspondent. There are a few reasons for this.

“Atmospheric parameters — low-level relative vorticity, mid-tropospheric relative humidity, vertical wind shear — are not at values conducive for cyclone formation during monsoon,” Dr. Ramesh Kumar says. Second, during monsoon there is strong zonal (latitudinal) wind in the form of a jet at lower levels and this is not conducive for cyclone formation as the vertical shear between lower and upper troposphere will not be minimum.

Finally, the sea surface temperatures are too low for cyclogenesis.

Taken from http://www.thehindu.com

1-May-2013, highest maximum temperature of 45.8°C was recorded at Chandrapur (Maharashtra)

2:10pm, Nagpur airport is reporting 47 C (and feels like 44.4 C)

#HOT at 2pm, Varanasi = 44C, Ahmedabad = 41C, Kolkata, Jaipur = 37C, Bangalore, #Delhi = 36C.

#Chennai = 2pm, temperature around 36 C (feels like 42C)  with humidity around 47% and mild sea breeze from S-E.
2pm, MOST of India is clear and #HOT, except for some rain over N-E states and cloudy over central,N-W Tamilnadu http://ow.ly/i/21ggx 

In next 12hrs, T.showers possible over S,S-W Tamilnadu, scattered over Kerala, S,S-W, central,N.Karnataka .. 

The W.D upper level circulation is over N-W Pakistan ... and will drift E-S-E towards Kashmir in next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/20r1I 

The present rain over Kashmir is expected to vanish after tomorrow !! http://ow.ly/i/20r6M 

Almost NO rain forecast for most of central,East,West and N-central Peninsula India during next 5 days... Very #HOT conditions expected !

Some T.showers expected to persist over N-E Andhra, S,coastal.Odisha during next 4 days !!

Scattered T.showers to continue over S,central Kerala and over S.tip Tamilnadu till 3-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20qLR 

Scattered heavy T.showers to continue over most of N-E states, Sikkim and over N,E Bangladesh for next 4 days... http://ow.ly/i/20qQi 

Today a circulation is seen over N.Madhyapradesh and its southern extension can be seen upto N,N-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/20oSz 

From 2-May the wind direction will shift to W,S-W over S.Peninsula, this will make the zone super #HOT from 2-May... http://ow.ly/i/20pmk 

South Bay may pop its first LOW on 5/6-May !!

The seasonal heat LOW over E,central India will be around 1000mb on 2-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20pV1 

The East India heat LOW will then spread to N,N-W of India and into Pakistan after 3-May ... http://ow.ly/i/20q3E 

Monsoon Watch -3 2013 (Additional)...April 30th....see Map on vagaries
The arrival date is calculated seeing todays position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress (In cricket parlance:projected score at the current run rate).This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces look well arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.
Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the embedded Lows to fizzle out, and to get going.

Arabian Sea Branch: Though there is some improvement in most of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, may not be affected by the temporary "dis-organisation " in the equatorial winds at the equator. ( Provided they regroup fast).

On these calculations, Vagaries would still maintain the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2013(20th May), Sri Lanka around 27th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 3/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th June (5th June).
Mumbai by 12/13th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thundershowers could start from around 6/7th June 2013.

Bay Branch: SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 15th.May (12th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 18th-20th May 2013.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 9th of June, along with the NE states.


These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

5pm, T.showers seen over S,coastal Odisha, N-E Andhra, N.Karnataka, S. Kerala and S.Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/20iVj 

#HOT at 4:30pm, Nagpur is around 45 C, Ahmedabad = 43 C, Varanasi = 42 C, Thiruchirapalli = 41 C, Patna = 40 C, Jaipur = 38 C, Kolkata = 35C

Yesterday's Max temperature map.. most stations over W,central, E, N,central-Peninsula India have reported above 40 C 

#Chennai - Airport, Yesterday max temp was 37.3 C. Major heating on cards starting from 2-May ... expected to cross 40 C.

#Chennai - 5:10pm, temperature is around 33 C, Humidity around 59% , now having good Sea breeze from E-S-E.