A partly cloudy night ahead for coastal Karnataka, W,S-W.Maharastra.. convective activity to continue over "98B".. http://ow.ly/i/17usP 

A fresh W.D is expected to reach W.Kashmir, Punjab by evening of 14-Nov.

Showers seen around 200km East from #chennai now... this may not reach coast... due to the system 98B.

If "98B" behaves as per models then there'll not be ANY Rain for most of Tamilnadu & #chennai from 14-Nov till 21-Nov.

Some showers possible along Tamilnadu coast, #chennai till evening of Diwali day as per latest data.

The steering winds OR the 200hpa Jet is from S-E upto 13/14th parallel and from S-W above that ... http://ow.ly/i/17ucg

The steering winds will steer the circulation "98B" initially towards N-W and then may be North or N-N-E.. http://ow.ly/i/17ucg

Latest NOGAPS model suggest that "98B" will become as a Depression and move North into Bay in next 2 days.. http://ow.ly/i/17u2l

COLA model also suggests a Northerly movement & Depression in next 2 days for "98B"... http://ow.ly/i/17u5b 

At 12am now.. the S.Bay circulation is now marked as "98B" ... Pressure around 1008mb .. http://ow.ly/i/17tTS

Here's the latest position of "98B" plotted on map... http://ow.ly/i/17tXi

11:30pm, Convective activity seen along the circulation "98B"... http://ow.ly/i/17tZs 

UAC in South Bay will descend as a Low, (BB-11) by the 14th of November, around the 8N and 85E region, East of sri Lanka. The system, BB-11 will move NW towards the TN coast as a depression. 
Rainfall increasing progressively along TN coast from 15th, and in Chennai from 15th/16th. Centre of the system will be off the TN coast on 16th...

As mentioned on 7th, another Low forms around the Andaman region, about 93E. The 2 system can form a strong trough. (Usually called a trough "in sympathy").

The tracking of BB-11 and BB-12 will depend on the tilt of the trough. 
Vagaries reads the situation as BB-11 moving into TN as a depression..

http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

#chennai - now 12:48pm, temp. is 30.3°C... Strong winds from N-E at upper levels. Almost NO cloud formation seen!

@yashpalsalecha >> #Chennai - May have 1 or 2 showers tomorrow, nothing much expected as the Bay circulation is expected to move North.

If the present S-E Bay circulation moves North into Bay.. then NO rain for Tamilnadu and #chennai till 19-Nov .. #Bad #News

S-E corner bay circulation persists and now NOGAPS also predicts a northerly movement into Bay from 13-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/17leU

Here's the NOGAPS prediction of circulation moving North into Bay on 15-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/17lfr

Here's the COLA model prediction of circulation moving north into Bay on 15/16-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/17lgw

Steering wind at 200hpa heights are moving North above 10th parallel over Bay.. this'll guide the circulation North.. http://ow.ly/i/17lhD