Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Yesterday's circulation over E-S-E Bay has weakened, but it'll emerge over S-E Bay on tomorrow and move West.. http://ow.ly/i/zpbb
Today again, heavy moisture can be seen over Central,S.Kerala and S.Tamilnadu.. more showers expected .. http://ow.ly/i/zpaG
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 11.35am, Now, some high cirrus clouds covering the sun..a pic thru window http://t.co/UHAGmOtR
Monday, April 16, 2012
July rains could fail India, says Japanese model
In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon. Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4% deficiency for July.
But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure of the monsoon during July. If so, this is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak El Niño event expected.
Rule on monsoon forecasts to be eased
This is proving embarrassing. There actually exists a law prohibiting private agencies from forecasting the monsoon. This means that people like Rajesh Kapadia and me are law breakers as we published our monsoon forecasts! But there is good news. A change in a decade-old rule will allow private organizations in the country— and not just the India Meteorological Department (IMD)— to issue monsoon forecasts. Phew!
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