Update on the S-E Bay low .. upcoming cyclone "JAL" ?? #2

JTWC

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 
100.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM 
NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF 
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST WEST OF 
THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE 
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. 
WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE, MODEL DEVELOPMENT 
FOR THIS AREA (GFS, NOGAPS, AND ECMWF) HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE 
BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

IMD

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The low pressure area over south Andaman Sea persists as a well marked low pressure area. The system is

likely to concentrate into a depression over the same area within next 24 hours. It may intensify further into a

cyclonic storm and move west-northwestward towards north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Chennai - Possibility of NO showers on 4-Nov, but from 5-Nov "Diwali day" ... showers are expected to pick-up strength

NOGAPS model predicts a N. Tamilnadu landfall for the upcoming cyclone .. http://ow.ly/i/59hx

Yesterday's upper circulation over S. Karnataka is over S-W coastal Karnataka and Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/59hh

5:30am, Well marked LOW and associated circulation can be seen over S-E Bay.. this is the seed for upcoming Cyclone.. http://ow.ly/i/59gZ

5:30am, low pressure area over south Andaman Sea persists as a well marked low pressure area.. likely to concentrate into a depression.

RT @prabhuferrari: Thanks to the extremely heavy rain between krishnagiri and ranipet, it took me 8 hrs to reach chennai frm bangalore,TNSTC

Latest COLA-GFS predicts a cyclone landfall over S. Andhra coast on 7-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/59gy

Chennai - now 11:28am having cloud movement & wind from E-N-E... cloud formations can be seen, local bursts possible than showers from Sea.

RT @balajisanjeev: The sky over Chennai is relatively clear without much clouds... Atleast over the southern parts. @weatherofindia