Saturday, June 05, 2010
Cyclone "Phet" has lost its Wind speed, rains and cloud mass... Now its a "Invisible" Deep depression.. http://ow.ly/i/1V5a
Update of Cyclone "Phet" @12pm IST
What cyclone? Where's the cyclone?At 996 mb,its no longer a cyclone.And where's the rain?Image of at 12 noon on Saturday.
Heading East, the system is fizzling out fast and rapidly.On entering North India as a low, it will precipitate some rain in the regions of Rajasthan, Punjab and Delhi by tomorrow.
What about the Monsoon? No change in our previous discussions and estimates. A sort of "cooling off" and "Re-Organisation" period is required,as the system will pass as a mini W.D. thru the Northern regions of the Sub-Continent.
This "waiting period" could be till 9th. June at the most for the west coast, North of Karnataka. Kerala should see the start of the revival from 8th.June. The forecasted wind direction for the 9th. June, raises the hopes of a revival by then.The Monsoon current, on gaining momentum by then, should progress into Karnataka and Goa by the 8th. and Mumbai by 10th. June.
No change in Mumbai Forecast: Increase in rains after the Monsoon arrives on 10th. June. (As per the sequence of events today).
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 15.. Now again in open Sea.
JTWC Warning
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JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Phet lost almost 70% of its cloud mass and shape.
It'll re-build on its way East over open sea.
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050300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 60.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 65 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 042157Z AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW CI (45 KNOTS). TC 03A HAS FINALLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Phet lost almost 70% of its cloud mass and shape.
It'll re-build on its way East over open sea.
Cyclone "Phet" .. pictures from Oman.. 1st landfall
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