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JTWC warning
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190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 81.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (35 TO 65 KNOTS). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. AN 182222Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 KNOTS (DEMS) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFS, TC-LAPS, WBAR, EGRR, ECMWF AND GFDN) SUPPORTS THIS TRACK AND ALSO INDICATES INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. LAILA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA AND BANGLADESH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 191500Z
IMD warning
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The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.50N and long. 82.00E, about 190 km east-northeast of Chennai, 480 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls (25cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010.
Chennai:
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From evening of 18-May till 8:30am of 19-May, Chennai has recorded 8.19 CM of Rainfall. And till now 12:27pm rainfall is continuing.
Rainrate will reduce towards late evening as "Laila" re-curves and moves North-North-East.
Satellite shot at 11:30am IST
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