From Accuweather

It is, in the subcontinent, the time of transition between SW and NE Monsoons. Surface pressure gradient has gone slack and the Westerlies are making inroads over the north. Monday, hit-or-miss thunderstorms have spread over the southeastern one-half to two-thirds of the subcontinent. There have lately been thunderstorms in and about Mumbai -- another marker of this season of transition.
Looking forward another 5-7 days, I see more of the same: weak surface pressure gradient, variable winds, Westerlies dominating over the north and persistence of an incremental withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Oh, and no hint of any tropical cyclone.

Signs of North-East

Today we had GOOD signs of North-east monsoon setting in...!
There were lot's of signs for typical early morning North-east showers.
In some places (North of chennai) there were in fact some drizzles and some showers.

Here is one GFS from weatherzone.com

The GFS predicts RAIN and HEAVY after 13-Oct-2008
A Depression may be forming just NORTH of srilanka and it might move inland during early next week.
Here is a prediction from Numeric forecast

sadly the numeric forecast shows nothing for next 48 hrs
Take a look at the latest satellite pic.

and even satellite pic also suggests nothing.
I can assure all that the north-easter current has started and it'll bring showers soon.

At the end of SW monsoon - 08

We (Chennai) is at the end of SW monsoon.
Now it's clear skies with patchy clouds around and humid days and mild nights.

Still there is low level SW air current. And no sign of North-easter yet.
Hoping to see the North-East monsoon around 10th to 15th of October.
Usually north-east sets in around 15th in North tamilnadu and around 22nd in south tamilnadu.

This year's north-east will also be a long one, like that of Last year - 2007.

Our next post will be a summary of South-west - 2008.

Typhoon "Jangmi"

Must see video

Some Rain facts for september (Chennai)

Monthly average = 109 mm
High temp = 38.9 C (19.09.1883)
Low temp = 20.6 C (15.09.1884)
Rain single day = 150.9 mm (30.09.1984)
Total rain = 279.7 mm (1897)

Almost at the end of SW monsoon

Now that the SW-monsoon air current has almost stopped.
Chennai has began to suffer from high humidity and sultry afternoons.
Some days we will have Electric showers if late afternoons or evenings.
For another 10 days the weather will be like this after that we can see the signs of Northeast monsoon.
I'm expecting a MORE than NORMAL north-east monsoon.
It might start at around 10-Oct-2008.

We have had good rains in all non-seasonal months (June to September).
September average rainfall is 109 mm and now it has recorded 121.00 mm

Hurricane "IKE" tracking

Live hurricane ike tracking visuals

Southwest monsson - youtube

Wettest seasons in chennai - records

Jan-Feb
-----------
213mm = year 2000
60.2mm = year 2008
51mm = year 2004

Mar-May
-----------
198mm = year 2004
166.6mm = year 2008
114mm = year 2005

Jun-sep
----------
677mm = year 2007
485mm = year 2001
442mm = year 2000

oct-dec
-------------
2108mm = year 2005
1079mm = year 2001
985mm = year 2002

Overall
-----------
2566mm = year 2005
1668mm = year 2001
1402mm = year 2002

Rainfall stats for Chennai during Summer & SW monsoon-08

Mar-07 = 0mm (0%)
Mar-08 = 165mm (5500%)

Apr-07 = 0.4mm (1%)
Apr-08 = 0mm (0%)

May-07 = 0.2mm (0%)
May-08 = 1.6mm (3%)

Jun-07 = 94mm (174%)
Jun-08 = 125.2mm (232%)

Jul-07 = 249.2mm (254%)
Jul-08 = 29.4mm (30%)

As you can see the trend is like... Summer showers are getting lower, so hot and dry.
If showers occur that is heavy and squally.
These features are of desert.
Good thing is Chennai is getting more rain from South-west monsoon.