Bali climate summit reaches agreement

BALI, Indonesia, Dec. 15 (UPI) -- The United States reluctantly has agreed to join a global effort to negotiate a new climate change treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"We will go forward and join consensus," Paula Dobriansky, the head of the U.S. delegation said Saturday.

The United States, in a dramatic reversal, agreed to give poorer countries financial aid and clean technology after the U.S. delegation was booed in Bali at the two-week climate change summit, Britain's Telegraph reported Saturday.

The U.S. delegation did succeed, however, in getting the summit to scrap specific targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for itself and other industrial nations. The road map for the proposed treaty now calls for industrial nations to recognize "deep cuts in global emissions" will be needed by 2020, the Telegraph reported.

A new climate treaty, to be negotiated by the end of 2009 and enforced in 2012, would replace the Kyoto Protocol rejected by the United States six years ago.

Now it's "94B"

Take a look at the visible picture from F-15 overpass provided by US Navy

Read the Navy report about the system
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 87.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED 60 NM TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND EAST IS PROVIDING GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

In chennai, we had a mild day with North-North-westerly winds thru the day, and now (11:03PM) it's very calm.
Today's temperature Hi: 29.4°C @ 11:22am and Low: 25.7°C @ 5:06am
Humidity: Hi: 79% @ 1:33am and Low: 60% @ 11:24am, the humidity is on the high side.
Now take a look at the numerical forecast for next 48hrs.

this too suggests a weak "94B". but more to come at the end of this week..!!!

What's this?

Take a look at the latest satellite pic

What's this? This system also has a swirl to it.
We'll get back to this tomorrow(16-Dec-07) morning.

Nothing for Chennai!

We (chennai people) did not get any benefit from the tropical disturbance "92B".
Seeing the satellite imagery there's still lot of activity over the south bay, so we might be in chance for getting some showers... early next week.
I'm not ruling out any showers for today! there's a 30% chance of rain today.

December - Bay of Bengal Cyclones

December 1-8,1972
Crossed Tamilnadu coast close to and north of Cudalore at 2330 UTC on 5th December and was within 50 km WNW of Cuddalore at 0300 UTCon December 6. Maximum wind speed recorded at Cuddalore was 111 KMPH to 148 KMPH (60-80) between 2230 UTC of 5th & 0230 UTC of 6th.80 People killed and 30,000 people rendered homeless in Madras due to flood.Total loss Rs. 40 crores.

December 4-11. 1981
Crossed West Bengal Coast near Sagar Island around 1300 UTC on December 10 and weakened into a depression on 11th morning over Bangladesh and into a low the same evening over Assam and Meghalaya.200 people died in 24 Parganas district of West Bengal One Million people affect in the districts of 24 Parganas.

01- 04 Dece. 1993
Crossed on 4th Nov. 30 Km north of Karaikal.100 People died in Tamil Nadu.

28 Nov.-06 Dec1996
crossed near Chennai around 2100 UTC of 6th Dec.1996.The cyclone persisted for 9 days which is reported to be very long life compared to any cyclone in the Indian Ocean. It caused severe damage to life and property.

"92B" inland and now "93B"

The Low pressure system "92B" moves inland and dissipates...
You can take a look at the latest satellite Infrared pic ... this shows clearly how fast the system has dissipated.
Yesterday's heavy rainfall records...
Nagapattinam and Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) 13 each, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt) 12, Vedaranyam, Karaikal, Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt) and Thiruvarur 11 each, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) 10, Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur dt) 9, Parangipettai, Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) and Muthupet (Tiruvarur dt) 8 each and Cuddalore, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Adiramapattinam, Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Valangaiman and Kodavasal (both Tiruvarur dt) 7 each


Now the US navy is reporting another tropical disturbance "93B", it's very early stage so no comments now.

Another close look of "92B"

Provided by US Navy

"92B" moves inland

Just take a look at the latest satellite pic and make out...

In Chennai, there's just heavy drizzle now(9:36 AM).
There's also reports about drizzles and showers from various part of Tamilnadu.

Outer edge of "92B"

Present position of Tropical Depression
13/1430 UTC LAT = 8.8N LONG = 81.4E CATEGORY = T1.5/2.0

Latest bulletin from US Navy
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
130348Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL
TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

Take a look at the latest Satellite pic.


Chennai was totally cloudy thru the day.
From evening onwards there was sprinkling of rain, it's continuing now(10:33 PM) also.
The rain rate will increase from early morning.
The above forecast is only IF the present system is sustained and moves east.
According to me the present "92B" depression might break off before tomorrow evening, that too over SEA itself.

"92B" has sustained

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
Bay of Bengal - 2030 GMT
System 92B
Position 7.1N 83.9E
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming within 24 hours: FAIR

Here in chennai, morning (8:49 AM).
It's heavily cloudy. This may the outer edge of the depression "92B".
Let's hope this system brings us good rain.
Take a look at the latest numeric forecast for next 24hrs