May 29, 2018 at 01:27PM

#Chennai - 1pm, "the heat is on".
Airport 41 C (check the feels like 50 C) #omg , Nungabakkam touched 39.6 C.
Sea breeze expected in next 1 hr, this'll reduce temps to 33/34 C. #iwm pic.twitter.com/704UrIyGAQ

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 29, 2018

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May 27, 2018 at 11:21AM

#Monsoon will touch S,central Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu by Sunday night, 27-May.
Low,mid-level circulation seen along Kerala coast will make this happen in next 12hrs.
Initial burst will last till Tuesday and next northward progress of Monsoon will happen after 2-Jun #iwm pic.twitter.com/JkyoAOCGba

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 27, 2018

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May 27, 2018 at 11:06AM

SW #monsoon 2018 is over Andaman Islands.
Initially less rain ahead for South Islands because the mid-level wind shear zone is seen above the Andaman island group over N-central Bay. #iwm
A good low,mid-level circulation seen along #Kerala coast .. meaning Monsoon is very near !! pic.twitter.com/b9pCo3mQEV

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 27, 2018

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May 25, 2018 at 07:12PM

You can see Cyclone #Mekunu near Oman and India with T showers.
Today again scattered heavy T showers seen over N,central,NW Tamilnadu, and T showers also over N,central,S Chatisgarh, Odisha, NE Jharkhand into SE Bihar. #iwm pic.twitter.com/ggtrfAf8R9

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 25, 2018

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May 25, 2018 at 07:07PM

6pm, Cyclone #Mekunu slowly punching into Oman coast, very near to Salalah.
During last 6 hrs it peaked in intensity after showing weakness in morning !!
Pressure around 965mb and winds gusting to 150kmph.
"Take care" #iwm pic.twitter.com/YJ4DQO60Kr

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 25, 2018

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May 25, 2018 at 06:58PM

RT @naveenkumars84:
3:34pm, Just felt the first rain drops of the season at my Hometown #Arani
Water is lifeline for every living thing
Dear god please be suffficent this year..!!!
Let's Celebrate the rains & Save Water..!!!#iwm pic.twitter.com/D73QghiH0J pic.twitter.com/ZJLPCQ0ow6

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 25, 2018

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May 24, 2018 at 11:27PM

After #mekunu landfall on Friday day, watch-out for the wind-shear zone from central Bay to SE Arabian sea and an embedded circulation over central Bay on Sunday !.
As of now, SW #monsoon can break into South Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu on Sunday evening / Monday morning ! #iwm pic.twitter.com/W6MjblzC3S

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 24, 2018

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May 24, 2018 at 11:21PM

SW #monsoon is near for South Srilanka and S,central Andaman Islands on Saturday, 26-May-2018.
This can be monsoon's northern limit on Saturday evening ! #iwm pic.twitter.com/MNIjzBghpF

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 24, 2018

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May 24, 2018 at 11:19PM

The SW Bay low,mid-level circulation is whipping up more T showers again over SE,central,N,NW Tamilnadu today, now. #iwm pic.twitter.com/EeOpF8q395

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 24, 2018

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May 24, 2018 at 10:52PM

Cyclone #mekunu is expected to intensify even more and make landfall along Border coast of Yemen and Oman at around late-evening (IST) of Friday !
No drastic weakening expected because wind shear is low !
When it is very near to coast, it can weaken due to DRY air and land. #iwm pic.twitter.com/PtkOfXYNim

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 24, 2018

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May 24, 2018 at 10:41PM

10:30pm, #Cyclone #Mekunu is nearing Oman coast.
Present pressure 973mb
Winds gusting to 137 kmph.
During past 12hrs, it came close to #Socotra island and now its over NNE of it.
In past 15hrs, it has maintained intensity and now showing signs of weakening. #iwm pic.twitter.com/Bpy42qEQfC

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 24, 2018

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May 23, 2018 at 03:44PM

RT @lawlawlawnd:
3:39pm, Started raining here in outskirts of Madurai city. Violent winds too @weatherofindia pic.twitter.com/luwSobsnyq #iwm pic.twitter.com/jA77SahyVe

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 23, 2018

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May 23, 2018 at 03:02PM

RT @rajbhagatt:
2:50pm, Bengaluru today! pic.twitter.com/VD9pd4acLW #iwm pic.twitter.com/tzc3rwcFL6

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 23, 2018

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May 22, 2018 at 07:53PM

6pm, Massive T showers seen over S,S-central,SW Bengal, N,W,central Odisha, central Chatisgarh, line of T showers from North to South Tamilnadu. #iwm pic.twitter.com/CiTFyHsvYO

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 22, 2018

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May 22, 2018 at 07:47PM

Cyclone 02A over SW Arabian sea.. It'll be named Cyclone #Mekunu in next 12 hrs.
Present pressure around 994mb.
Winds gusting to 85kmph.
Expected to drift NNW and intensify further in next 24hrs ! #iwm pic.twitter.com/HQSn1xfoLX

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 22, 2018

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May 21, 2018 at 10:56PM

SW Bay is also having a weak circulation and now tracked as 93B.
As long as the Arabian sea system intensifies into Cyclone, the Bay system will remain weak and drift NNW during next 3 days.
"Green line" is the mid-level wind shear line, Below that is #Monsoon #iwm pic.twitter.com/Ck1sKSgHjR

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 21, 2018

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May 21, 2018 at 07:53PM

92A, S-S-W Arabian sea system is now a Depression and slowly taking a Good shape.
GFS, HWRF and ECMWF suggests that it'll intensify into a SUPER Cyclone in next 3 / 4 days and drift NW towards Oman (mostly) , Yemen coast. #iwm pic.twitter.com/A51DCA9EYI

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 21, 2018

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Monsoon Watch-4 Published with Quantum Forecast...www.vagaries.in

May 20, 2018 at 06:44PM

May 19, 2018 at 12:58PM

#Chennai - Temperature is expected to go up by 1 or 2 C today and tomorrow as the winds become SW,W.
But a early Sea breeze onset can reduce the temperature surge at around 2 / 3pm. #iwm
Yesterday, Airport 38 C. Now it is 38 C ! pic.twitter.com/XiQfv0HyaF

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

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May 19, 2018 at 12:47PM

Today, there's a good N-S trough at low-levels from East madhyapradesh dipping South to Central, S Andhra and touching N Tamilnadu.
Less T showers ahead for W-ghats of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu and mostly Low-level winds over South,central Peninsula. #iwm pic.twitter.com/j4xKJzJKoy

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

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May 19, 2018 at 12:34PM

Both GFS and ECMWF models expect the Arabian sea system to intensify during next 3 days and drift North, while the SW Bay system may linger as a weak circulation and drift North as well !! #iwm pic.twitter.com/6WwR2sEjt7

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

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May 19, 2018 at 12:11PM

The South Arabian sea circulation has formed due to rush of cross equatorial winds, even though its weak, it has prompted a circulation at low,mid-levels.
As of today, the South Indian Ocean HIGH is still weak, ill positioned, this is expected to become strong after 23-May #iwm pic.twitter.com/LNr83GnpLv

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

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May 19, 2018 at 12:00PM

An "early" dumbbell like circulation has formed at mid-levels, one over SW Bay (which is weak now) and a better organized one over S Arabian sea. This is a pre-cursor to SW Monsoon onset. It's expected to get better organized in next 3 days ! #iwm pic.twitter.com/cYD9W7FRHw

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 19, 2018

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South West Monsoon 2018 - Update #1 Parameters Check

Central,NW India heat LOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As of now, the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb over NW India and into Central Pakistan. This should be around 998mb at this time of year. An upper-level WD trough is expected to touch N Pakistan and Kashmir during next 7 days, so this can marginally affect the heating over North India.  This LOW is expected to deepen slightly to 998mb during next 8 days.

Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At present the HIGH pressure over South Indian Ocean is WEAK around 1020mb and models suggest that the HIGH is not expected to materialize to around 1030mb during next 7 days.
This is why only weak cross equatorial winds are reaching Somalia coast and almost nothing crossing into South Bay. 

SST
~~~~~~~~

The Sea surface temperature along Somali coast has not started dropping below 28 C, meaning, the Somali low-level Jet is not present. Once the cross equatorial winds pickup, the Somali coast should see a drastic drop in Sea surface temperature. 

Bay Low and Arabian sea Low

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The April month LOW over Bay has not materialized and it seems Bay is not in a mood to host one during next 10 days either. Instead, Arabian sea is expected to pop a LOW , circulation on 21-May.

Both, GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a Low over S-central Bay on 22-May and then intensifying into a Cyclone and moving NW.

This system will disturb the Bay Monsoon onset, as of now, it's not showing ANY sign of Monsoon onset over S,SE Bay and over South Islands of Andamans before 25-May.

LWD and North-South trough

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At present LWD seen along W-ghats from S-tip Tamilnadu to NW Karnataka and along NE Andhra to SW,W Bengal , this is creating Afternoon, evening Thunder showers (pre-monsoon showers).

The seasonal N-S trough at low-levels from Bihar to S,SE Tamilnadu along SE coast of India should be well marked at this time of year, but it's not. At present the N-S trough can be seen as a mini N-S trough from S Madhyapradesh to E,central Andhra. Around 22-May, this is expected to align to the expected position.

Forecast for June, July and August

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is just for future reference purpose only !

JAMSTEC long range forecast indicates GOOD rainfall for SW,W coast of India during June, July and August.

And, CFS monthly forecast suggests the totally opposite. LESS, DEFICIENT rainfall during July, August for entire SW,W coast of India.

Let's see !!

Good MJO till 1st week of June

----------------------------------------------

A good MJO phase is now moving into Arabian sea and will be over entire North Indian ocean , Arabian sea and South Bay till 1st week of June.

This is good for Monsoon onset !

This may be a reason for upcoming Arabian sea circulation around 22nd May.

Monsoon onset over South Andamans and SE,S Bay may get delayed and pushed beyond 25th May.

Monsoon onset over South Kerala can be around 2/3-June.

May 10, 2018 at 10:07AM

May 07, 2018 at 02:33PM

May 06, 2018 at 04:00PM

May 04, 2018 at 07:48PM

Low-level wind confluence zones can be seen in this chart !
All these zones can have scattered HEAVY T showers before midnight today.
6pm, a lone T shower seen over S central Gujarat, weak showers over S,SE Rajasthan, T showers over N chatisgarh, N Odisha, SW Bengal #iwm pic.twitter.com/swoHfN3gBE

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 4, 2018

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Monsoon Watch -3 Part 1...2018
www.vagaries.in

May 02, 2018 at 11:18PM

Today, Heavy T showers "Nor-westers" were observed over N Chatisgarh, Jharkhand and into W,S,central Bengal.
3rd May will be no different, "More scattered Heavy T showers ahead for these zones". #iwm pic.twitter.com/R0UIrToAxA

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 2, 2018

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May 02, 2018 at 11:07PM

#Chennai - On 1-May, Airport records 39.2 C.
Today also it touched 38.2 C even though there was a thin high cloud cover.
Southerly or SSE winds to prevail for another 4 days, meaning "high humidity", temp will not cross 37 / 38 C, but will be "uncomfortable" till 3pm #iwm pic.twitter.com/FnhGu43HK9

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 2, 2018

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May 02, 2018 at 03:51PM

Yesterday evening and night T showers belt can be seen from NE Andhra to S Andhra into N Tamilnadu and extending to Kozhikode in Kerala.
Many places in Kancheepuram district of Tamilnadu got moderate T showers. #iwm
Vanur - 3cm
Uthiramerur, Kancheepuram - 2 cm pic.twitter.com/vbDpKvUsXV

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) May 2, 2018

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