Daily
values for Nino Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and SOI have crossed Nino
threshold though their 30 day mean values may still show a lag. Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) which till very recently reflected La Nina values have
now flipped into El Nino mode.
According
to the Australian Met yesterday daily SOI was a whopping (-) 20.6. It is now
clear that we are not having a canonical El Nino, but a Modoki (pseudo El Nino), Type II variety wich would be very
devastating for the Indian monsoon. To accentuate the problem, both the Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) have
turned adverse for rainfall, compounding the adverse effect of the Modoki.
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