Peninsula may not gain much from reviving monsoon

The revival of monsoon is expected to translate into rains mainly across the west coast, central India and parts of east peninsular India.

This is because there is no support forthcoming from the Bay of Bengal in the form of strong lows or depressions.

But there are indications that a cyclonic circulation may materialise over the head Bay of Bengal and adjoining east coast and Gangetic West Bengal early next week.

RAINS FOR WEST

It may go on to expand into a trough covering the whole of central India and even extending into Gujarat.

Going forward, the trough is seen moving further west, with some rain indicated for south Gujarat, Saurashtra and the Mumbai-Konkan belt.

Meanwhile, the heavy to very heavy rains continued over east India and parts of north-west India until Friday morning and are expected to continue, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and coastal Karnataka.

Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh.

TROUGH PULLS BACK

Satellite imagery on Friday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura.

These clouds were also spotted over east-central and southeast Arabian Sea, north and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, which is an indication of a rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in operation.

Meanwhile, the land-based seasonal across northwest and southeast India has pulled itself back to the foot hills of Himalayas, indicating the weak phase of the monsoon.

This trough can revert back to its normal position to the south when it gets linked with a ‘low' that forms in the Bay, of which there is no immediate indication.

OFFSHORE TROUGH

An offshore trough continued to run down from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. This is what is preventing the monsoon from going into a classical ‘break phase' - a prolonged intra-seasonal dry phase.

Meanwhile, forecast valid until Monday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.

It would be fairly widespread over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and along the west coast.

Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over the remaining parts of the country outside Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, interior Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh where it would be isolated.