The UAC moves N/NE, and remains very close to the Konkan coast.. The system, when last reported, was off the Mah. coast, but as on 11.30 pm IST, it lies at 18.4N and 72.1E, just around 55 Kms West/South-West off Mumbai. At 12.30 am (Monday) it moved to 71.1E.
Against expectations, it has remained close to the coast for the last 3 days. With the help of an off shore trough from Mah. to Kerala, pulling up the SWM up the Konkan coast upto Mumbai. OLR maps, winds and other parameters turned favourable to monsoon advance suddenly in the last 48 hrs. In fact, OLR values have turned to less than 200 (highly favourable) up to the Gujarat coast and into S.Gujarat.
It was a wet Sunday afternoon and evening in Mumbai. receiving thundershowers with S'Cruz measuring 33 mms and Colaba 17 mms till 8.30 pm Sunday night.
In Gujarat, though North Gujarat was hot with Deesa recording 46.5c on Sunday, and some the effect of precipitation was felt Vadodara.
But Saurashtra and Kutch are reeling under a severe heat spell. 10 year highs in Rajkot and Bhuj.
Bay sector remains very weak. With no significant development in the next 5 days, it seems there is no momentum to push the SWM into the NE states. The Bay has remined devoid of any system now for a very long time. We may just about see a weak low end of this week in the central Bay. May may not be of significant strength on hitting land by the next week end.
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