98A is now a LOW pressure system and lingering over N-E Arabian sea and showing signs of intensifying in another 48 hrs and expected to move in N-N-W direction.
Latest position :: 18.1N , 69.3E
Pressure :: 1000 mb
wind speed :: 55 KmpH
Latest position :: 18.1N , 69.3E
Pressure :: 1000 mb
wind speed :: 55 KmpH
JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation Alert
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.1N 69.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082028Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS 1000 MB, A 2 MB DROP IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A NEARBY SHIP REPORT MEASURED 1000 MB MSLP AS WELL. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28-33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO DECREASING PRESSURES, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
COLA model suggests a Cyclone on 11-Jun and making landfall over Pakistan on 14-Jun
While the IMD model suggests a landfall over Oman on 14-Jun
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