Update on S-E Bay Depression... Nearing Cyclone status

Position :: 8.8N , 90.3E
Wind :: 55 kmph
Pressure :: 1000mb


Satellite shot, 7pm IST
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JTWC tracking
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JTWC warning
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FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 90.9E TO 9.6N 86.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
90.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 
92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STALLED 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST DAY. CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO YIELD 
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION GREATER THAN 2.0, OR 30 KNOTS, FROM PGTW. 
UNTIL THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, MOVING NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS, VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH AND CONVECTION WILL 
STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTER. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR, BUT 
IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
DAY, NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER VWS. STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.