update on S-E Bay Cyclone ... "05B"..Not yet named, getting organized

Satellite shot, 10:30am IST
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IMD warning, 8:30am IST
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Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and concentrated into deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today the 5th November 2010 near lat. 9.0⁰N and long. 88.5⁰E about 800 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1150 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7^thNovember 2010 evening/night.

            Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from forenoon of 6^th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7^th November 2010.

           

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6^th November 2010. Sea conditions will be very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

JTWC warning, 8:30am IST
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050300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 88.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 042316Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO 
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, BUT, IN GENERAL, SHOWS A MORE 
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE IMPROVING OVERALL OUTFLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE 
EASTERN QUADRANT DESPITE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 
KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 05B IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
TC 05B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE (TO 55 KNOTS) IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VWS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 24 AS VWS DECREASES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 75 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48, AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 72-96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 11 FEET. 

JTWC tracking

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