Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb
Though it had moved in N-W direction, the upper air current is still favorable for a N. Tamilnadu landfall.
IMD warning, 8:30am IST
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Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal : Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message
The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved westwards, and lay centered over south west Bay of Bengal at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, near lat.10.00N and long. 85.50E about 500 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 750 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu,Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema..
Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from today evening It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.
Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhrapradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
Damage expected:
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
JTWC warning
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060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 85.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060019Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 060019Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS FROM DEMS, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS, HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
JTWC tracking
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Satellite, 8am IST
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