JAL WATCH

Sub:Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward, intensified into Severe Cyclonic storm and lay centered at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, near lat.10.00N and long. 86.00E about 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 700 km east-southeast of Chennai and 850 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)	Intensity
06-11-2010/0230	10.0/86.0	90-100 gusting 110	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/0830	10.5/85.5	100-110 gusting 120	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/1430	11.0/85.0	110-120 gusting 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/2030	11.5/84.0	110-120 gusting 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/0230	12.0/83.5	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/1430	13.0/82.0	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/0230	14.0/80.0	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/1430	15.0/79.0	50-60 gusting 70	Deep Depression
09-11-2010/0230	17.0/77.0	40-50 gusting 60	Depression

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema .

Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from today evening It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

Damage expected:

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested:

Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.