JAL TRACK

06112010 / 0745 hrs IST:

Position : 10.45 Degree North / 85.9 Degree East.

[About 700 km E-NE of Nagapattinam]

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘JAL’ JAL MOVED WEST-NORTWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 2100 UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010, NEAR LAT. 10.00N AND LONG. 86.00E ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 700 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 850 KM SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE (43245) 

                     SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.  THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA. 

                    ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD MASS IS MORE ORGANISED. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5. THE CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION  AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND  BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION BETWEEN LAT.6.00 TO 15.50 NORTH AND WEST OF LONG 89.00 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800 TO -850C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

                    THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT. THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN PUDUCHERRY  (43331) AND NELLORE (43245) CLOSE TO CHENNAI (43279) BY 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 NIGHT. 

                    BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW: