Best July in 5 years, as rains pound North

The country has just had the best July in five years in terms of recorded monsoon rainfall (302 mm).

The last time it rained more than 300 mm (all-India area-weighted average) was in 2005. But the similarity ends there.

In 2005, a surplus July was followed by a deficient August; whereas, this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting August and September to be surplus.

REPEAT OF 2006

So, it is probably going to be a repeat of 2006, where, too, the monsoon began weak only to gradually gain strength in later months.

A common denominator deciding the course of events, five years apart, is the redoubtable game-changer located to the east – a La Nina in the East Equatorial Pacific.

By the look of things, La Nina may already have started impacting weather this side of the Pacific as evidenced in heavy rains and floods in China, India and Pakistan.

It could expectedly get worse going forward, with the IMD predicting rainfall at 107 per cent above the long-period average (LPA) for the country.

FRESH SURGE
Meanwhile, a fresh monsoon surge has brought widespread rainfall over parts of Central and adjoining Northwest India during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
An IMD update said that west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and the West Coast received widespread rainfall during this period.
It was fairly widespread over the remaining parts of north-west India, Gujarat and the north eastern States while being scattered over the remaining parts of Central and South Peninsular India.
There would not be any respite for these regions over the next two days as well, according to a warning issued by the IMD.

MORE IN STORE
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
Satellite imagery on Sunday showed presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over the entire region covering Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
These clouds were also traced to over north-east Arabian Sea, north and adjoining central and south-east Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
The International Research Institute (IRI) at the Columbia University too has come out with a forecast indicating very heavy to extremely heavy recorded rainfall during the six days ending on Wednesday.

EXTREME HEAVY
The extremely heavy rainfall belt is shown to cover Rajasthan and adjoining north-east and south-east Pakistan.
The latter have already witnessed a round of serious flooding.
Central India, West India (Gujarat and neighbourhood) and East India would also get moderate to heavy rains during this period.

SUCCESSIVE ‘LOW'S
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) supports this scenario by predicting the formation of ‘low's, one after the other, on Wednesday (Aug 4) and Monday (Monday next).
Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Mumbai-Konkan and Gujarat are expected to come under a fresh wave of rainfall as the La Nina strengthens its grips on the Indian monsoon.
Meanwhile on Sunday, the IMD said in its update that the prevailing rain-driver low-pressure area lay parked over north-west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan. It is likely to move northwestwards.

SYSTEMS IN PLACE
The upper air cyclonic circulation over north-west Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower levels also persisted.
So too did the offshore trough running from south Gujarat coast to Konkan coast.
In its forecast valid until Wednesday, the IMD said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand and Northeast India.

EXTENDED RAINS
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also occur over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
Forecast valid until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over the plains of Northwest India, East, Northeast and Peninsular India.