Monsoon likely to mimic 2006 pattern

Will this monsoon be a repeat of 2006 (normal) pattern or will it end up in a disaster like last year?

Going by the quantum of rainfall received so far and the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) optimistic prognosis for July and August, there is reason to believe that the current south-west monsoon season (June-September) will be on the lines of 2006.

SLOW START

In 2006, the monsoon got off to a slow start, with the country getting only an average of 141.8 mm of rains during June, as against the normal long period average (LPA) of 162.4 mm for the month.

But July turned out to be good and August-September even better, so that the season, as a whole, returned a near-normal monsoon.

This time, too, June has registered an area-weighted average precipitation of just 137.5 mm.

This, even being deficient relative to the normal, is still a considerable improvement over last June's 85.7 mm, which was the worst-ever recorded June.

The IMD, in its updated forecast issued on June 25, has predicted rainfall at 98 per cent of the LPA in July and 101 per cent in August (subject to a plus or minus 9 per cent model error).

These would work out to an estimated 287 mm and 265 mm respectively, which more or less conform to the pattern in 2006. But the most disastrous scenario would be a repeat of last year, when the monsoon staged a smart recovery in July and then completely fizzled out in August and September.

Farmers, in the process, faced a double setback: The rains did not come when they sowed the first time. When the rains finally arrived, they sowed afresh only to encounter a second dry phase.

This time, farmers have been more cautious, not resorting to aggressive planting and waiting for the monsoon to advance. If July and August turn out good, it would probably be worth the wait.