Saturday, June 05, 2010

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 15.. Now again in open Sea.

JTWC Warning
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050300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 65 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 042157Z 
AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW
CI (45 KNOTS). TC 03A HAS FINALLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET.

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Phet lost almost 70% of its cloud mass and shape.
It'll re-build on its way East over open sea.

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