Cyclone "Ward" -- Update - #5

JTWC: warning, 8:30pm IST
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121500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120754Z AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL BETWEEN
TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET

JTWC: Predicted path, 8:30pm IST
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Rather unusual path prediction

Satellite shot, taken at 9 pm IST
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As expected after 5pm, we are witnessing huge cloud formation in and around Cyclone "ward"'s core.
Coastal Tamilnadu has started receiving showers from 6pm IST.
JTWC - Predicts a south-west movement and hit north tip of Srilanka and then Hit Pamban.
Chennai also receiving steady and intermittent heavy showers from 6:45pm IST.
Cyclone "ward" is so far very slow and tough to predict. A complicated system so far and it'll be to it's very end.