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120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 120344Z METOPA IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 45 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
WARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE
THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: predicted path:: 2:30pm IST
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IMD:: Warning: 2:30pm IST
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The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
Latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 evening onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 afternoon. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite shot at 2:30pm IST
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